Calcined Petroleum Coke (CPC) is a product of high-temperature calcination of petroleum coke, which is mainly used in aluminum electrolysis, steel, titanium dioxide and other industries. Its price is affected by many factors, including crude oil prices, supply and demand, environmental protection policies, international trade situation, etc. The following is a market analysis of calcined coke price trends:
1. Recent price trends (2022-2023)
2022: The overall price of calcined coke shows an upward trend, mainly driven by the following factors:
Rising crude oil prices: As a by-product of crude oil refining, the price of petroleum coke rises with the rise in crude oil prices.
Demand growth: The demand for calcined coke in the aluminum electrolysis industry (especially China) remains strong.
Supply chain tension: Rising global logistics costs and supply chain disruptions have pushed up prices.
2023: Prices fluctuate greatly, with prices falling in the first half of the year and rebounding again in the second half of the year due to rising demand and rising energy costs.
2. Main factors affecting the price of calcined coke
(1) Crude oil price
Petroleum coke is the raw material of calcined coke, and its price is highly correlated with crude oil price. Rising crude oil prices will directly push up the production cost of calcined coke.
(2) Demand in the aluminum electrolysis industry
Calcined coke is an important raw material for the aluminum electrolysis industry. The growth of global aluminum production (especially in China, India and other countries) will significantly drive demand.
(3) Environmental protection policy
The production process of calcined coke will produce certain environmental pollution. The tightening of environmental protection policies in various countries may lead to rising production costs or reduced supply.
For example, China's "dual carbon" goals (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) have a greater impact on high-energy consumption industries.
(4) International trade situation
Calcined coke is a global commodity. International trade policies (such as tariffs, export restrictions) and geopolitical factors (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict) will affect the price.
(5) Energy cost
The production of calcined coke requires high-temperature calcination. Fluctuations in energy costs (such as natural gas and electricity prices) will directly affect the price.
3. Regional market analysis
(1) Chinese market
China is the world's largest producer and consumer of calcined coke, and its price is greatly affected by the domestic demand of the aluminum electrolysis industry and environmental protection policies.
In 2023, China's calcined coke prices will show a "fall first and then rise" trend, rebounding in the second half of the year due to the recovery of aluminum prices and rising energy costs.
(2) North American market
The price of calcined coke in North America is greatly affected by energy costs and the demand of the aluminum industry.
The growth of shale oil production in the United States has provided a guarantee for the supply of petroleum coke, but the rise in energy prices has pushed up production costs.
(3) European market
The price of calcined coke in Europe is greatly affected by the energy crisis (such as natural gas price fluctuations) and environmental protection policies.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to tight energy supply, further pushing up production costs.
(4) Indian market
India's aluminum electrolysis industry is developing rapidly, and the demand for calcined coke continues to grow, making it an important consumer market in the world.
4. Forecast of future price trends (2024 and beyond)
(1) Short-term (2024)
Upward pressure: Crude oil prices may remain high, and energy costs and environmental protection policies will continue to push up production costs.
Demand support: Global aluminum electrolysis industry demand remains stable, especially in the Chinese and Indian markets.
Price range: Calcined coke prices are expected to remain high and may fluctuate between US$400 and US$600 per ton.
(2) Medium- to long-term (2025 and beyond)
Demand growth: With the global green energy transition, the application of aluminum in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics and other fields will increase, further driving the demand for calcined coke.
Supply pressure: Environmental protection policies may cause some high-pollution production capacity to exit the market, and supply may become tight.
Price trend: In the medium and long term, prices may show a slow upward trend, but the increase is subject to technological progress and alternative products!
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